Wednesday, July 3, 2013

Best Actress Predictions: 7/3/13

Top 5
Naomi Watts, Diana
Pros: Naomi Watts has been very prolific in the past several years and earned her third Oscar nomination last year for The Impossible.  Playing a famous, beloved recent historical figure is guaranteed Oscar bait.
Cons: Aside from Watts there is not too much prestige involved in the movie.  No real known director, writer or actors.  She will have to carry the movie on her own and the movie will have to find the right way to portray Diana in an interesting yet fairly unoffensive way.
Meryl Streep, August: Osage County
Pros: Streep is leading an incredible ensemble in an adaptation of an award winning play.  Streep always leads to awards buzz, this role should be no different.
Cons: Streep is not always a sure thing.  Just won her third Oscar, will have to sit out this win.  Julia Roberts could potentially be campaigned as lead, which would lead to vote splits.
Cate Blanchett, Blue Jasmine
Pros: Blanchett is a solid actress that has not had a good role in a while, playing lighter for a change should be a good fit.  Woody Allen has certainly written good female roles before and this looks like a good Woody Allen movie.  The role of a frustrated wife struggling with modern issues should resonate with audiences.
Cons: It has been a long time since Blanchett was considered synonymous with awards buzz.  Woody Allen has been even more inconsistent than her however.  If this is a bad Woody Allen movie or even a passable one she will have to sit this out.  Her role in Monuments Men (which is fairly unknown at this point) could be a better shot in supporting.

Sandra Bullock, Gravity
Pros: Sandra Bullock is one of Hollywood's most likable actresses.  Has an Oscar win under her belt, has starred in three Best Picture nominees and a box office hit from this year's The Heat.  This movie is pretty much just Sandra Bullock on her own and was a role sought after by many actresses.
Cons: Audiences may not want to see Sandra Bullock in a sci-fi movie.  She could be overshadowed by the special effects and Cuaron's direction.  If the movie fails at the box-office it may fail with awards (ala Cloud Atlas).
Berenice Bejo, The Past
Pros: Earned a nomination from The Artist and won the top prize in Cannes for this movie.  Often times there is one leading actress in a foreign film who can earn a nomination.
Cons: Unsure how the film will be released stateside, Cannes and the Oscars do not always match up.

Marion Cotillard, The Immigrant
Pros: For as consistent of an actress as Cotillard has been since her Oscar win she needs to be invited back.  The role of an immigrant sold into slavery is one that the academy may notice her for.
Cons: Ever since her Oscar win she has failed to earn a second nomination, despite strong work in Public EnemiesNine,Inception and Rust and Bone.  Could be overshadowed by her male co-stars, Joaquin Phoneix and Jeremy Renner.  Movie may just not work and potential vote splits with Blood Ties.

Kate Winslet, Labor Day
Pros: An Oscar winner that is switching to somewhat lighter fare.  Jason Reitman movies usually have strong female roles and Winslet seems like a great fit for the director.  The role of a mother in trouble often does well.
ConsYoung Adult got shut out by the Academy despite its good direction, acting and writing.  A lot of competition from other popular actresses in this category, the movie needs to succeed and Winslet needs to stand-out to get another nomination.
Emma Thompson, Saving Mr. Banks
Pros: P.L. Travers, the author of Mary Poppins, is infamous for being difficult with Disney.  This should be a broad character that Emma Thompson can really play up.  If she can combine heart with the more unlikable aspects of the character she could get a nomination.
Cons: Travers is not as famous of a public figure as Disney and is more difficult to like.  Leading actresses are often more likable.  Thompson also has not been in contention nomination in a long time and could possibly go supporting.

Jennifer Lawrence, Serena
Pros: Lawrence won last year's Oscar and is a very popular celebrity.  This role as a wife who is unable to conceive could show a much more dramatic side to the actress.  Also she is acting with Bradley Cooper again whom she clearly has chemistry with.
Cons: the press can be a little nasty towards her.  May need to wait until she is a bit older until she gets invited back.  Also has a supporting role in American Hustle which may be a better bet.
Julie Delpy, Before Midnight
Pros: Acclaimed actress returning to a beloved role.  The movie has been receiving a lot of great reviews and decent box office.  There is awards buzz for it and if it well enough received she could earn her first acting nomination.
Cons: Delpy and Ethan Hawke did not get awards attention for the previous movies.  This is an early release, could be forgotten with bigger upcoming releases featuring more popular actresses.

Also in Contention
Judi Dench (Philomnia), Nicole Kidman (Grace of Monaco), Rooney Mara (Ain't Them Bodies Saints), Julia Roberts (August: Osage County), Kristen Wiig (Girl Most Likely)

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