Best Supporting Actor Predictions (as of 11/13/12)

Tommy Lee Jones, Lincoln

Pros: Tommy Lee Jones has been cited as the highlight of the movie, playing against type.  Been the most popular name in this category among many pundits

Cons: Has to compete with David Straithairn, James Spader and many others in this large ensemble, not the most popular actor anymore (see Men in Black 3)

Philip Seymour Hoffman, The Master

Pros: One of the most reliable, Oscar friendly actors gives a big, powerful, controlling performance there is no way voters are ignoring him

Cons: Should be guaranteed a nomination on his reputation and strength of the performance, but the movie may not be popular enough for a second win

Alan Arkin, Argo

Pros: Brought levity to a very heavy movie.  He added laughs without going over the top and gave the role some weight.  Hollywood should find a lot of honesty in his performance as a slick producer

Cons: A small role and has a whole ensemble of talented actors to compete against, already won an Oscar while no one else in the cast has ever been nominated

Leonardo DiCaprio, Django Unchained

Pros: Playing against type and having fun in a movie could finally win Leo his Oscar

Cons: Nobody has seen this movie and there is no guarantee that anything in it will get a nomination.  He could be a threat to win, but he is going up against more established and accomplished actors in movies that may be better than his

Dwight Henry, Beasts of the Southern Wild

Pros: Lack of competition could land this novice actor a nomination for the most challenging role of the year

Cons: This movie may not be what voters are looking for, he is completely unknown, may not have a strong campaign, the character is tough to like too

Runner-Ups

Robert De Niro, Silver Linings Playbook

Pros: In one of the best movies of the years, many pundits think he could have a chance

Cons: De Niro is no longer seen as a dependable star, his role could be overshadowed by the main characters

Russell Crowe, Les Miserables

Pros: A terrific role and great music, this could be a very powerful performance

Cons: He is not a singer like the rest of the cast, his vocals seemed shaky in the most recent trailer.  It has been a decade since Russell Crowe was an Oscar favorite

Matthew McConaughey, Magic Mike

Pros: Magic Mike surprised a lot of audiences and critics, but it is one of the most popular movies of the year.  MCConaughey has been making a comeback and has had a very Oscar friendly career shift these last few years.  Already has a campaign going, sex appeal in the role

Cons: The subject and role of male stripper may not appeal to some voters, role in a summer blockbuster not an Oscar movie

Jude Law, Anna Karenina

Pros: Been overdue for another nomination for a while, his deglamorized performance in the trailer looks very promising, role of a ruler can do well with voters

Cons: He may be too far off the Academy's radar at this point, movie has not been well received, could be overshadowed by Keira Knightley

William H. Macy, The Sessions

Pros: A strong supporting performance from a dependable actor

Cons: Small movie, John Hawkes and Helen Hunt may receive all of the attention