Hugh Jackman, Les Miserables
Pros: A risky predictions, but I think predicting a third win for Day-Lewis and Denzel is riskier. This is a beloved role, Hugh Jackman is an incredible showman who gets to show off not only his dramatic range but his vocal range, he is one of the most likable working actors
Cons: He is not an Oscar actor, he's Wolverine. Even though I am hesitant to predict Day-Lewis for a win Daniel Day-Lewis as Steven Spielberg's Lincoln may be impossible to beat, leading actors in musicals rarely get a nomination much less win
Daniel Day-Lewis, Lincoln
Pros: Been called the greatest living actor, received universal praise for this role, Abraham Lincoln is such a popular figure that the role is guaranteed a nomination and a huge threat for a win
Cons: Only five actors have ever received nominations for being in a Spielberg film, there is a lot of hype around this role and performance which can be dangerous, Lincoln is such a mythical character that any performance may ring untrue
Denzel Washington, Flight
Pros: A true movie star and leading man who has returned to form, plays a very complex character who struggles realistically with alcoholism and anchors this film
Cons: May not be seen as an Oscar film, a lot of competition this year, no real gimmicks involved in this role
Bradley Cooper, Silver Linings Playbook
Pros: A popular actor in a romantic comedy that plays a person with mental illness is Oscar bait, this movie has been doing great with audiences, people will respond to his performance
Cons: Voters may not take Cooper seriously or see him as deserving of a nomination, the movie needs to be a hit
John Hakwes, The Sessions
Pros: Previously nominated, well respected actor who has gone through physical changes to play a real person with an illness
Cons: Movie was small, a lot of competition, needs a strong campaign
Runner-Ups
Joaquin Phoenix, The Master
Pros: Many people swear by this performance, it is very popular and well-received. It is big and personal which often leads to Oscars. To many he is the one to beat
Cons: Joaquin Phoenix isn't playing the Oscar game, he has no interest in it and that may cost him. He is backed by Weinstein, but Harvey is also campaigning Bradley Cooper and Jamie Foxx. The Master has largely been overshadowed by this point, the strength of the movie won't carry him. I know people will disagree with me and there is a possibility of voters surprising you, but for right now I'm calling him a long shot
Richard Gere, Arbitrage
Pros: Usually brought up as one of the better actors without any nominations, this has been highlighted as a career performance, could be a comeback
Cons: Small movie with a small release, hasn't been in a good movie in a long time, not the most popular actor
Jamie Foxx, Django Unchained
Pros: This looks like a role that Jamie Foxx was born to play and seems to play to his strengths, incredibly likable actor
Cons: Made several career missteps, Tarantino writes great characters but the actors are rarely rewarded
Anthony Hopkins, Hitchcock
Pros: Prestigious actor playing the most beloved filmmaker in history will get the academy's attention
Cons: We will see if the makeup and impression weighs Hopkins' performance down, Helen may steal the show
Ben Affleck, Argo
Pros: Affleck is finally receiving much deserved respect, an acting nomination may be part of his reward for making Argo (akin to Beatty and Costner getting both directing and acting nominations)
Cons: Even though it is campaigned and marketed as a lead role this really is an ensemble film, the performance is very understated which may cause it to be overlooked
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