Keira Knightley, Anna Karenina
Pros: An mature young actress who has starred in several Oscar bait movies is playing one of literature's most famous female characters, works well with Joe Wright, could be seen as due
Cons: The movie has not been getting great reviews, she may have a ways to grow as an actress
Jennifer Lawrence, Silver Linings Playbook
Pros: The current favorite to win by many. Incredibly talented up and comer who has already been nominated and stars in one this year's most popular films. This role allows her to play mature, broken, have chemistry, and highlights her beauty
Cons: Although a lock for a nomination may be seen as too early in her promising career for a win
Jessica Chastain, Zero Dark Thirty
Pros: A very prolific new star who received a nomination last year plays a strong female in a position of power
Cons: Campaigned as lead but the action and suspense may end up being the star of the movie, film has not been seen yet
Marion Cotillard, Rust and Bone
Pros: Since her win in 2007 Cotillard has received praise for her roles in Public Enemies, Nine, Inception and Midnight in Paris. Now a Hollywood star she may be due for another nomination
Cons: Foreign language performances rarely get nominated (La Vie en Rose was a rare exception), will be competed against the stars of larger films
Helen Mirren, Hitchcock
Pros: Usually a popular name around Oscar times and one of the few women over forty that gets some form of recognition, also plays the role of the strong suffering wife which AMPAS loves
Cons: I'm still not sold on this movie, if it isn't great that could hurt her chances (I would say she is a lock though)
Runner-Ups
Naomi Watts, The Impossible
Pros: Naomi Watts has been working a lot lately and this is the role of a mother in crisis
Cons: Movie is an example of mighty whitey which people are getting smarter to, movie hasn't been making huge waves (pun very intended), they may wait to nominate her next year for Princess Di
Quvenzhane Wallis, Beasts of the Southern Wild
Pros: If she is nominated she will be the youngest performer ever to receive a nomination, but everyone seems to agree that this little girl gives one of the best performances of the year and creates an iconic character
Cons: Child stars rarely get Oscar attention, if they do it is usually in supporting (i.e. Steinfeld), as much as I want this movie to be rewarded by the Oscars they may overlook it
Emmanuelle Riva, Amour
Pros: Said to be one of the best things in the movie and a popular name among internet pundits
Cons: Unknown actress stateside, foreign language performances are tough sells, especially if Marion Cotillard is already competing in a foreign language film, reviews for Amour have not all been positive and it won't receive a large audience
Judi Dench, Best Exotic Marigold Hotel
Pros: This is a weaker category this year, a performance like this could sneak in, Judi Dench will also be remembered for her large role in Skyfall
Cons: A small, early release movie, not the most challenging role, AMPAS hasn't seemed keen to nominate Judi in a while
Mary Elizabeth Winstead, Smashed
Pros: Mary Elizabeth Winstead is an it girl that Hollywood seems to want to make happen, beat out several popular actresses for this role
Cons: A very small movie that has not been seen by many, she may just not work as a movie star for whatever reason
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