Best Supporting Actress Predictions (as of 12/14/12)

Supporting actress is a very tight category.  You can count out Ann Dowd, Kelly Reilly, Kerry Washington, and several other surprises.

There are four set nominees.  But the fifth slot is the one that is up in the air.  I still hold some hope for Samantha Barks.  If Les Mis hits with voters she definitely could upset.  However this is her first movie and she is competing against another actress in her own movie, who is a lock to win.  Nicole Kidman has entered the race this week with surprise nominations in both the SAGs and the Globes.  She is one of those performers that just usually comes up around Oscar time.  I would predict that the fifth slot goes to Maggie Smith.  It looks like Best Exotic Marigold Hotel has a shot at picture, she could be the acting representative from that ensemble.  Plus the veteran actress was also the lead in Quartet, voters often reward for multiple roles.

The remaining four slots seem set.  Despite missing out on an important SAG nomination I would not discount Amy Adams.  However The Master is not a very strong contender and her role is not the largest.  While Adams always seems up for an Oscar nomination she is one that is the weakest.  I would say she is a lock with some vulnerability.

Helen Hunt will receive a nomination for The Sessions, the film does not have enough steam to carry her to a win.  Lincoln may be successful enough to carry Sally Field to an upset.  However although she is guaranteed her first nomination is decades, it is doubtful she will win the elusive third Oscar.

Of course the win seems to be guaranteed to go to Anne Hathaway.  All of the marketing and buzz around Les Mis seems centered around her small but pivotal role.  This is said to be the most emotional scene of the year and the tragedy of it should lead this consistent, but often overlooked performer to the gold.

Best Actress Predictions (as of 12/13/12)

The best actress category is by far the most spread out this year.  There are two locks and several actresses who could make the cut.  This is the most difficult to predict.

It is safe to say that Keira Knightley is out of the race.  I had initially predicted her to win, I thought that the film and the role would be too Oscar bait to ignore.  However Knightley has never done too well with awards.  I thought that the race was open enough for Leslie Mann to be a potential contender, but the Globes did not even recognize the movie and there are too many other actresses in the race.  There are a few veteran outliers that could potentially make it in such as Judi Dench, Maggie Smith and even a small shot for Meryl Streep.  However I would say that the race is between seven actresses.

The contender on life support right now is Quvenzhane Wallis, which is not surprising considering her age, unknown status and small film.  Unfortunately it is not looking like Beasts of the Southern Wild will receive as many nominations as many had hoped.  Also faltering is Emmanuelle Riva who started precursor season out strong but failed to make an appearance at SAG or Globes.  She is a foreign actress who is unknown stateside in a movie that many are not seeing.  I have a feeling that Amour's recognition will be relegated to Best Foreign Language Film.  Also still in contention is Rachel Weisz, this is a late entry in the race but after winning New York Film Critics Circle and beating out several actresses for a Globe nomination it looks as if she may be a spoiler.

But at this point the most likely five seem to be Helen Mirren, Naomi Watts, Marion Cotillard, Jennifer Lawrence and Jessica Chastain.  Mirren, Watts and Cotillard could easily be replaced by an upset.  But those three have been the most consistent.  However none of their films are up for many Oscars.  In their favor is that they are all prolific and well liked.

Of course the frontrunners are Lawrence and Chastain.  Lawrence is a lock for a nomination while it is looking like Chastain is a lock for the win.  Don't see anyone else winning outside of these two. but Lawrence could potentially upset.