Best actor has certainly narrowed down. Ben Affleck has not received any notice as an actor, I assumed he might make the cut because often times the actor/director is recognized for both roles if the direction is good enough (see Beatty or Costner). Jamie Foxx seems tailor made to play Django and is a very likable actor but was left out of the Globes while Django was nominated for everything else. Also his SNL monologue may have sealed his fate this Oscar season. Hitchcock is out of the race for everything but Helen Mirren so Anthony Hopkins is out.
There are two potential spoilers. One is veteran actor Richard Gere who just scored a Globe nomination. Gere has often been cited as one of the better actors without any Oscar nomination (previously Gary Oldman was on that list). However his movie is too small and he has not been rewarded elsewhere. Despite the quality of his performance this will most likely not be his year. However he could be a surprise on Oscar morning.
Then there is talked about Joaquin Phoenix, who could very well get a nomination for his critically acclaimed role in The Master. However his disparaging comments towards Oscar season, the lack of a SAG nomination and lack of attention for his film make his nomination seem unlikely. He would seem like this year's Ryan Gosling. Beloved and protected by internet film fans, but unnoticed by anybody else.
The final five seem to be pretty set on Denzel Washington, John Hawkes, Bradley Cooper, Hugh Jackman and Daniel Day-Lewis. Despite Flight's exit from the Oscar race Washington has been consistently nominated and is very well liked in Hollywood. Hawkes has also been noticed in The Sessions. However if Phoenix and Gere are making it in they are taking the spots of these two.
Bradley Cooper won the NBR, got a SAG nomination and could very well win a Golden Globe. He has a slight chance of winning, it would be greater if his film was more widely seen. Jackman could also win, especially if Les Mis does well across the board. However both of these actors are fighting to be taken seriously as Oscar actors as they are more known for The Hangover and X-Men.
Which leaves Daniel Day-Lewis to win. I initially did not expect him to win a third Oscar so soon, but he has won absolutely everything so far. It seems heresy to no recognize two time Academy Award Winner as Steven Spielberg's Abraham Lincoln. He is clearly the one to beat. Cooper and Jackman are the ones who could, but I would not bet on it. Day-Lewis is taking home his third Oscar unless something drastically changes.
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