The best bets are Lady Bird, Call Me by Your Name, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri, Get Out, The Shape of Water and Dunkirk. The winner is somewhere in there and there is a strong case for all of them. The Post is guaranteed a nomination, but won't have enough steam to cross the finish line.
With the Oscars preferential voting system there can be anywhere from 5-10 nominees for Best Picture. Since the change to this system there have usually been 9 nominees. But we had 8 nominees in 2014 and 2015, think this will be one of those years. There seems to be enough steam for The Big Sick to get that last slot. But The Florida Project or I, Tonya could also get the 8th or 9th nomination.
There are some outside chances for Mudbound, The Disaster Artist and Molly's Game. Wonder Woman and Logan are still in the conversation, outlasting the a hoard of well received blockbusters including Blade Runner 2049, Guardians of the Galaxy vol. 2, War for the Planet of the Apes and Star Wars: The Last Jedi. Other Oscar contenders like Battle of the Sexes, Last Flag Flying, Detroit, The Beguiled and many others could be shut out entirely, barring some artistic categories. Darkest Hour and Phantom Thread will have to settle for acting nominations.
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Best Picture
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Top Five
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Lady Bird
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Call Me by Your
Name
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Three Billboards
Outside Ebbing
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Get Out
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Shape of Water
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Pros: Getting notices across the board. Strong chances for important categories of director, acting and screenplay.
Cons: Gerwig could be left out for director. Smaller comedies don't often win.
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Pros: Most traditional Oscar drama contender this year and its been getting all the right places.
Cons: Some minor controversies. Its director and actors could be considered too new for wins. Smaller film among larger ones.
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Pros: Topical film with strong script and ensemble.
Cons: The humor and some of the harsher content might not sit well with traditional voters. McDonagh could be left out for director.
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Pros: Most talked about film from last year. Stayed in the race. Consistent in precursors.
Cons: Early release date, genre film, actor turned directors. A lot for voters to get past.
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Pros: del Toro is definitely due for Oscar attention. This film has been a staple in precursors.
Cons: Still a genre film. Going to be a tough win, but it will be nominated.
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Next Predicted Three
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Runner-Ups
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Dunkirk
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The Post
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The Big Sick
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Florida Project
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I, Tonya
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Pros: Nolan finally playing the Oscar game. Big financial and critical hit. Based on a true story.
Cons: Earlier release and it has been post over in precursors for others.
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Pros: Spielberg's true story about politics starring Streep and Hanks. Was a lock from the announcement.
Cons: Not strong enough for more than a nomination.
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Pros: Early release that has stayed in the conversation, earning a SAG ensemble nominations and a lot of writing recognition.
Cons: Early release and a comedy in a year with a lot of comedy. No directing contender.
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Pros: A film many feel strongly about. Lock for Best Supporting Actor. Been receiving precursor notice.
Cons: Smaller film from a newer voice. Not guaranteed much other than Dafoe.
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Pros: Just received a surprise PGA nomination. Acting is getting a lot of attention.
Cons: Smaller film with a new distributor that has never gotten a film to the Oscars before.
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Longer Shots
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Wonder Woman
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Mudbound
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Molly’s Game
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Disaster Artist
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Logan
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Pros: Received a PGA nomation and other precursors. Successful film that is important to many.
Cons: Competition with Logan. Still a blockbuster. There is criticism for the film.
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Pros: Good reviews. Lock for Best Supporting Actress and screenplay.
Cons: Not popular enough to overcome streaming bias.
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Pros: Got a PGA nomination.
Cons: Not getting noticed for much else aside from Chastain and screenplay.
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Pros: Well received film with Oscar buzz. AMPAS loves movies about movies.
Cons: Has not been getting much notice for Best Picture or Director.
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Pros: People really responded to this movie. WGA nom helps. Easiest superhero movie for voters to recognize.
Cons: Early release, still a blockbuster, other competition.
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