Back in April I made two blogposts full of box-office predictions for this summer. Looking back at those posts I have to admit that I was way off. A few release dates got moved around. 300: Rise of an Empire left summer entirely and Grandmaster changed from a wide-release. The movies Paranoia ($6 million), Jobs ($12 million) and The Butler ($53 million so far) were late additions to the summer schedule. There were also a number of impressive indie releases such as Mud, Before Midnight, Fruitvale Station, Blue Jasmine and Kevin Hart: Let Me Explain. Here is the recap of the releases that made under $100 million. All of these deal in domestic totals.
To-Do List
My Prediction: $20 million
Actual Total: $3 million
What Happened?: CBS Films can not market a movie and as likable as the cast is they are not box-office draws. Female gross out comedies are tougher sells without Melissa McCarthy and just poor timing opening the same day as The Wolverine.
You're Next
My Prediction: $10 million
Actual Total: $7 million
What Happened?: Horror fatigue with The Purge and The Conjuring already surprised. Nothing in the final weeks of August will do too well. Should get up to $15 million though.
Peeples
My Prediction: $45 million
Actual Total: $9 million
What Happened?: Tyler Perry was only the producer. Craig Robinson, Kerry Washington and David Alan Grier are recognizable but not box-office draws. The Great Gatsby overwhelmed on the same opening day and Iron Man 3 had an incredible holdover. Very poor reviews and was not going to do well outside its target demographic.
World's End
My Prediction: $30 million
Actual Total: $9 million
What Happened?: The audience that loves these movies doesn't really go to theatres, they are vocal on the internet and for whatever reason there is not a mainstream appeal. Word of mouth should help it out as it just opened and may get close to my projection. Will end up doing much better as a cult hit.
Mortal Instruments
My Prediction: $20 million
Actual Total: $14 million
What Happened?: Lack of options and enough marketing towards its younger demographic will help it get to somewhere around $30 million but it has a poor release date and does not have the same wide appeal as a franchise like The Hunger Games.
Kick-Ass 2
My Prediction: $65 million
Actual Total: $23 million
What Happened?: Superhero deconstruction has been done before and comedy superhero movies have never done too well. Audiences want to see more straight forward superhero movies, which there are plenty options for. The switch in distributors and lack of Jim Carrey's support hurt it as well.
R.I.P.D.
My Prediction: $70 million
Actual Total: $32 million
What Happened?: Universal buried the movie on a full weekend and did not market it early enough. Ryan Reynolds is not a box-office draw (having two movies underperform in the same weekend). Terrible reviews did not help, it was just a want to be blockbuster that couldn't commit to doing anything exciting.
The Internship
My Prediction: $35 million
Actual Total: $44 million
What Happened?: I guess a few more audiences like Owen Wilson and Vince Vaughn than I thought. But this was always going to be a bomb. Lame premise and terrible jokes in the trailer. As a brilliant Onion video pointed out this would be a hit in 2005 not 2013.
Percy Jackson
My Prediction: $35 million
Actual Total: $48 million
What Happened?: Smurfs 2 and Turbo underperformed so this and Planes got the family audience dollar. The only option for audiences too old for mainstream cartoons but too young for adult blockbusters. But this was never going to be a huge hit, just serviceable for late summer.
Red 2
My Prediction: $50 million
Actual Total: $51 million
What Happened?: I was only $1 million off! We have seen Bruce Willis do the aging action star routine a few times recently and Red is just not a summer franchise. The first surprised in October where it was something of a sleeper, but this did not raise the stakes enough or give audiences much incentive to see it.
Planes
My Prediction: $120 million
Actual Total: $60 million
What Happened?: Family audience's dollar had been stretched enough by the time this was released to keep it from being too successful. But it certainly made back its budget and should do well on home video.
After Earth
My Prediction: $100 million
Actual Total: $60 million
What Happened?: There just was not much that looked exciting and Will Smith and M. Night Shyamalan were not box office draws. Audiences just avoided a dull looking movie.
Smurfs 2
My Prediction: $100 million
Actual Total: $63 million
What Happened?: I was so happy that this movie failed but The Naughties were not enough new for a franchise with a pretty terrible first installment. There were other animated options and I am very proud of the US families.
The Purge
My Prediction: $15 million
Actual Total: $64 million
What Happened?: Last year was a terrible year for horror but this year has had several hits like Mama, Evil Dead and this. This one surprised because it looked better than After Earth and Now You See Me, both of which moved their release dates for some reason. There was also heavy viral marketing before the release.
2 Guns
My Prediction: $85 million
Actual Total: $61 million
What Happened?: Denzel and Marky Mark are dependable but they need the right vehicle and release date. The movie did well but not as well as a team-up of these two likable stars should have done. Wahlberg has not had the best year with Broken City and Pain and Gain. This could be a staple of basic cable however.
Elysium
My Prediction: $130 million
Actual Total: $69 million
What Happened?: Had a strong opening, but reviews and word of mouth slowed it down. As opposed to District 9 which had no expectations this had a lot that it did not live up to.
White House Down
My Prediction: $100 million
Actual Total: $72 million
What Happened?: People already saw Olympus Has Fallen and The Heat had a better opening as well as other blockbuster holdovers and competition of Man of Steel and World War Z. Tatum seems like less of a draw when it comes to action movies.
Turbo
My Prediction: $115 million
Actual Total: $78 million
What Happened?: Despicable Me 2 and Monsters University were so wildly successful that it had an affect on other animated fare. All animated movies are marketed the same so there is little incentive to see them all.
Lone Ranger
My Prediction: $100 million
Actual Total: $87 million
What Happened?: A lot of things. The filmmakers are blaming the critics. I blame the marketing department who did not make it look exciting, Johnny Depp for phoning in too many similar movies and just dangerous trends in blockbusters that I don't want to support. There are plenty of articles analyzing this one, but yeah they spent too much money on a movie they should have realized was a risk.
We're the Millers
My Prediction: $75 million
Actual Total: $92 million
What Happened?: Sudeikis and Aniston are likable comedic stars who have earned the audiences trust. This one got good word of mouth and has a lot of replay value. Just a perfect late August high concept comedy with a lot of heart and loads of laughs.
This is the End
My Prediction: $80 million
Actual Total: $96 million
What Happened?: Intense viral marketing, great word of mouth and just generally likable. A friend told me that it seemed like the actors had fun making this movie, audiences like seeing that. It was enjoyable and surprising. Had a lot of replay value.
Pacific Rim
My Prediction: $140 million
Actual Total: $99 million
What Happened?: It was treated like a blockbuster but as liked as Del Toro is they did not really support him. As a non-franchise this was a tough sell to mainstream audiences and its genre is not in right now. I am surprised that word of mouth did not help it out, but the lack of stars or franchise association did keep it from reaching its blockbuster aspirations.
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