2017 Oscar Predictions- Best Director

Best Director is a much more interesting category than usual this year.  With no set Best Picture frontrunner there is a lot that could go on here.  The most interesting trends this year is that two of the major contenders are overdue genre favorites and two first-time directors that are best known as performers.

For the genre filmmakers you have two of the most beloved modern masters: Guillermo del Toro and Christopher Nolan.  Neither have been acknowledged by the Academy as directors before, but are definitely considered due for Oscar recognition.  Nolan, who was left out for Dark Knight, Inception and Interstellar, plays the Oscar game for the first time.  Meanwhile del Toro is a widely respected filmmaker who hasn’t had a film that matched up with Oscar tastes until now.  With Cuaron and Inarritu winning this award three years in a row, del Toro is the remaining major Mexican filmmaker to win for a Hollywood film.

It is notable Greta Gerwig and Jordan Peele have directed two this year’s biggest Oscar contenders.  These are two debut films from artists that are best known as performers.  This is something that AMPAS have not acknowledged in quite a while.  While Warren Beatty, Robert Redford, Kevin Costner, etc. could win for transitioning from acting to directing, this has not been the case in recent years.  Notably Affleck was left out for directing Argo.  The last actor turned director to be acknowledged was Mel Gibson last year, who already won twenty years prior.  With this track record it is expected for AMPAS to only nominate one of the two.  Especially with their constant lack of diversity.  Expect Gerwig, having nominate one of the frontrunners, to earn a nomination while Peele will have to wait.

Expect the other two nominations to go to Luca Guadagnino, whose film has been consistently mentioned in many categories.  The Oscars will often go for a new director in this category if their film plays the Oscar game well.  Also Martin McDonagh, who directed what I am currently expecting to be a frontrunner.  He will pull a Kenneth Lonergan, as a playright who succeeded in directing.   Although it won’t be a clean enough win to earn him a win.  But with his previous respected films, McDonagh will make it thorough.

Other than Peele, the directors left out include Steven Spielberg for The Post which won’t catch the fire that was expected.  Sean Baker, Dee Rees and Paul Thomas Anderson all have extreme outside chances.  But don’t bet on it.

Predicted Nominess

Guillermo del Toro, The Shape of Water

Christopher Nolan,  Dunkirk

Luca Guadagnino, Call Me by Your Name

Martin McDonagh, Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Greta Gerwig, Lady Bird

2017 Oscar Predictions- Best Picture

This is year has much stronger batch of Oscar contenders than we've had in recent years.  There are six films that are absolute locks, although none have reached frontrunner status yet.  Which bodes well for the wins being spread out among the categories.

As of right now I am predicting Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri to win, although it is far from a sure thing.  This is a very topical movie that is difficult and memorable, but clever and funny enough to go down easy.  It will be well represented in screenplay and multiple acting categories.  This has a consistent presence in the precursors and currently has a slight edge on the others.

Next up is the universally praised Lady Bird.  Many are predicting this to win, but Gerwig's directing nomination makes it a little less certain.  It seems too light for an Oscar win, comedies don't win at the Oscars.  But it still could surprise.  Call Me by Your Name has been consistently represented in the precursors throughout several categories and has an edge as being a traditional drama in a year with a lot of comedies and genre films.

Speaking of genre films Get Out has astonishingly maintained its place in the Oscar conversation despite its early release and horror background.  Like Gerwig, Peele could easily be left out as a director and it would be a very surprising win.  The Shape of Water on the other hand is guaranteed to get its director noticed as well as acting and screenplay nominations.

Dunkirk has been overshadowed by newer releases, but it is still in the race.  Just no longer has its chance to win.   The Post is not as much of a sure thing as it had once seemed, but respect for Spielberg, Streep and Hanks should help this more standard Oscar fare.

Beyond these seven, the Oscars will nominate between one to two more films (they haven't nominated ten since the voting process changed).  The Florida Project has been making a good show in the precursors, but it could still be just about Dafoe at the end of the day.  The Big Sick has also stayed in the race.  Being shut out of the Globes hurts, but that SAG nomination does more for it.

Other potential nominees include Mudbound, which has been getting notices but it is not strong enough the Oscars to get past their streaming bias.  The Disaster Artist seems to just be about Franco and the screenplay.  Darkest Hour was not the major player it was expected to be, but it could be traditional enough to appeal to voters.  Paul Thomas Anderson always has vocal supporters, but it is doubtful they will line up for Phantom Thread.  I, Tonya has its supporters but it buzz seems to be just about the performers and it has a new distributor that is inexperienced in the Oscar game.

Coco is not a strong enough Pixar film to get nominated for Best Picture (something they only pulled off twice, seven years ago).  As for the blockbusters they were either too divisive (Star Wars, Guardians) or had too little impact (Planet of the Apes, Blade Runner).  Leaving Wonder Woman and Logan, but they would have had a major precursor notice if they were going to have a chance at crossing the finish line.  Get Out, The Shape of Water, and a Christopher Nolan movie will be enough of a departure for voters.

Predicted Nominees

Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri

Lady Bird

Call Me by Your Name

Get Out

The Shape of Water

Dunkirk

The Post

The Florida Project

The Big Sick