2019 Academy Award Predictions for Best Picture (7/31)

The Oscar race is pretty open, but we've seen enough trailers and festival selections to understand most of the contenders.  As always I am predicting nine nominees.  With the weird preferential ballot system we will only get 8-9 nominees instead of the possible 10.

So far the only major Oscar contender that's been released has been Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.  It is controversial and definitely a magnet for bad press among certain voters due to it's true Hollywood setup.  But it is assured multiple nominations.  Aside from the new Tarantino there is a chance that The Farewell gets some notices, but it has to outlast many bigger movies.  Rocketman, The Last Black Man in San Francisco and others are just lacking the kind of buzz that gets early releases to the Oscars.  Expect Disney to push Avengers: Endgame, but its broken records are its reward.

The most interesting player this year is Netflix, with multiple Oscar friendly releases coming in the next few months.  With a lot of streaming bias being expressed after last year's Oscars they have an uphill battle.  So far the streaming giant has only gotten narrative notices for Mudbound (Supporting Actress and Adapted screenplay in a noncompetitve year for both categories), Ballad of Buster Scruggs (Adapted screenplay again) and Roma (won a lot, still lost Best Picture).

This year Netflix will be heavily pushing The Irishman, pure Oscar bait that they paid a lot for.  They also have Marriage Story, The Last Thing He Wanted, The Two Popes, The Laundromat, Dolemite is My Name and The King.  All of which have Oscar potential in several categories, but no studio can push more than a few titles a year.  And with Netflix's release system several of those are bound to be forgotten.  So far Marriage Story has strong buzz, that may get Netflix a second nomination if the studio output stays weak.

2019 is also looking incredibly diverse.  Harriet, Queen and Slim, A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood, Little Women, The Last Thing He Wanted, Clemency and The Farewell are all nominated by women.  This is a huge jump from last year which didn't have any major contenders directed by women.  Like the last few years there are several strong contenders from black filmmakers, but the Academy has never nominated more than one black director in any given year.  I am hopeful that the sheer variety of films and talented filmmakers break some trends, but keep in mind that Green Book won last year.

Here are my predictions as of July 31st:

Top Predicted Five
Harriet	The Irishman	Once Upon a Time in Hollywood	Queen and Slim	Ford V. Ferrari
An American legend finally getting her own biopic.  This is a terrific cast and it looks to be a high-quality Oscar-friendly period piece.  The trailer was very impressive, expecting it to be a frontrunner.  Aside from the Oscar-winning 12 Years a Slave, historical movies about the slavery era  from a black perspective have come up short.  This looks like the type of movie a lot of people have been waiting for a long time.	The trailer didn’t feel too exciting outside of the legends involved, but their involvement is getting a lot of notice.  Scorsese’s long-gestating projects don’t always do well with the Oscars (Last Temptation, Silence).  But Netflix paid a lot for this and even released the teaser during the last Oscars.  Expect them to put a big push behind it.  With the involvement of Scorsese, DeNiro, Pacino, Pesci, Keitel and Zalian it will be noticed.	Slightly controversial, but is expected with Tarantino.  This was the first major Oscar release this year and there is a lot of the reaction shows affection towards Tarantino and admiration towards his maturation as a filmmaker.  Expect nominations for DiCaprio, Pitt and Robbie along with writing and directing.  This is one that could get some bad press with some older voters though.	Amazing trailer from a fresh director.  Openly acknowledging the legacy of Bonnie and Clyde, this feels very much part of that legacy while being an incredibly modern film.  Expecting Universal to push this one over 1917 or Cats.   There are still a lot of old white Academy members, sadly we haven’t seen multiple films from black or female filmmakers with frontrunner status.  But there is a lot of variety this year, hopefully things progress.	The kind of slick studio picture that Oscars go for.  Mangold has been on his way towards an Oscar.  Disney just spent a lot of money to acquire Fox, who has a good track record with Awards Contenders (Bohemian Rhapsody went further than it ever should have last year).  Expect Disney to put some money to get some Oscar love to justify their purchase.
Next Predicted Four				Runner-Up
Fair and Balanced	Jojo Rabbit	Marriage Story	A Beautiful Day in the Neighborhood	The Good Liar
Still untitled, but I will refer to it by this title.  Vice made a good showing with nominations last year, expecting the Fox News movie will play similarly.  Jay Roach has won Emmy’s for political true stories multiple times.  There are multiple chances for nominations among the strong cast.	Every year an off-beat indie like The Favourite gets in from a weird auteur.  Waititi has been doing interesting work for a long time and Searchlight excels with films like this.  The movie is definitely risky, but looks like it will make it all work.  Goofy on the surface, but looks to have a lot of substance.	We will see how many films Netflix can push at the Oscars, but this year a lot of the strong contenders are their’s.  There is strong hype behind this one, Johansson and Driver are a strong pairing and Baumbach is definitely overdue for Oscar attention.  Human dramas like this can do well.	Last year Bohemian Rhapsody did well at the Oscars because viewers felt like they got Freddy Mercury back.  Getting Tom Hanks as Mr. Rogers should have a similar effect.  The trailer had a great response.  Stands out as a film that isn’t cynical.  The film needs a strong push though, Academy snubbed last year’s documentary on the same subject.	Warner Bros. always gets one film in, this seems more likely than The Goldfinch.  Old fashioned drama with an excellent British cast that should lead to plenty of nominations.  Definitely smaller feeling, but if it could outlast flashier competition with studio support.  If McKellen gets frontrunner status he could carry the film with him.
In Contention
Little Women	The Report	The Last Thing He Wanted	The Two Popes	Just Mercy
Lady Bird was a very strong nominee two years ago.  Gerwig brings the potential for directing and writing nominations.  A huge Oscar friendly cast.  If it is a good adaptation it could make a showing.	Most likely film that Amazon will push, but they haven’t had much success outside of Manchester by the Sea in 2016.  Report has a strong cast, but feels similar to Scott Z. Burn’s other film, The Laundromat.  Only one of the two can stay in the race.	Netflix has a lot of contenders, they can’t all get noticed.  This premise and cast is strong though and Dee Rees is on her way to Oscar attention.  Dafoe is due for a win, he might carry his film to a nomination.	Intriguing premise, two beloved veteran actors and a director due for a comeback make for a potential contender.  Again, we’ll see how many films Netflix is able to push.  But if Hopkins and Pryce are in contention then their film should be too.	Has an Oscar qualifying release.  May just be a studio courtroom drama.  But a cast including Jordan, Larson and Foxx should build some buzz.  If it is gripping and has something to say then WB should be able to push it.  Cretton is a  very good director.
Long Shots
The Laundromat	The Farewell	Dolemite is My Name	1917	Where’d You Go, Bernadette?
The Goldfinch	Us	Pain and Glory	Clemency	The King
21 Bridges	Rocketman	Knives Out	Parasite	Dry Run
Cats	Downton Abbey	Last Black Man in San Francisco	The Lighthouse	Avengers: Endgame